- Political Odds 2016 Presidential Election
- Political Odds Checker
- Political Odds Futures
- Political Odds Paddy Power
Election Betting Odds
GOP Nomination 2024 GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024. $4,226,361 bet so far. US politics betting for all American markets. Get 2020 Election odds, including Democrat and Republican candidates, plus midterm specials and much more.
By Maxim Lott and John Stossel
Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, Smarkets, and PredictIt | How People BetHover over candidate pics for market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.
Odds for this page are averaged between FTX.com, Betfair and Smarkets
20.1% +0.0% |
15.1% +0.0% |
10.6% -0.1% |
5.7% +0.0% |
3.9% +0.0% |
3.9% -0.1% |
1.9% +0.0% |
1.7% +0.0% |
1.7% +0.0% |
1.5% +0.0% |
1.5% +0.0% |
1.4% +0.0% |
1.2% +0.0% |
1.0% |
0.9%
+0.0%0.8%
+0.0%0.5%
+0.0%0.4%
-0.1%0.4%
+0.0%0.2%
+0.0%25.6%
54.0% +0.0% |
42.5% +0.0% |
3.5% |
22.4% 0.2% |
11.3% +0.0% |
10.0% 0.1% |
7.5% 0.1% |
4.8% +0.0% |
4.1% 0.1% |
3.7% -0.2% |
2.9% +0.0% |
2.9% +0.0% |
2.5% 0.3% |
2.5% +0.0% |
2.5% +0.0% |
2.5% Usa matched betting. +0.0% |
2.0% +0.0% |
1.6% +0.0% |
0.8% +0.0% |
16.0% |
| Books we like: | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 'No, They Can't' By John Stossel | 'Signal and the Noise' By Nate Silver | 'Random Walk' By Burton Malkiel | 'Radical' By Maajid Nawaz | 'In Order To Live' By Yeonmi Park |
Political Odds 2016 Presidential Election
Political Odds Checker
(5% of purchases go to support ElectionBettingOdds.com through Amazon.com's affiliate program. Thank you!)About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute
|
Copyright 2020, FTX.com
Our 2020 forecasts — presidential, Senate, House — are all now officially frozen, meaning we won't be ingesting any new polls or updating the odds in any race. Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time. At the end of a loooooong campaign, here's where we stand: Joe Biden is favored to beat President Trump (though Trump still has a 1-in-10 chance); Democrats have a 3-in-4 shot at taking back the Senate; and the House will most likely remain under Democratic control (Democrats might even expand their majority by a few seats). The big picture is clear: The overall electoral environment favors Democrats, which is one reason they have decent odds of controlling the presidency, Senate and House (a 72 percent chance, according to our forecast). Of course, there's always the chance of a polling error, which tends to be correlated from state to state when it happens. Trump needs a bigger-than-normal error in his favor, but the real possibility that polls are underestimating Trump's support is why he still has a path to win reelection. A 10 percent chance of winning is not a zero percent chance. In fact, that is roughly the same odds that it's raining in downtown Los Angeles. And it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)
Political Odds Futures
0.9%
+0.0%0.8%
+0.0%0.5%
+0.0%0.4%
-0.1%0.4%
+0.0%0.2%
+0.0%25.6%
54.0% +0.0% |
42.5% +0.0% |
3.5% |
22.4% 0.2% |
11.3% +0.0% |
10.0% 0.1% |
7.5% 0.1% |
4.8% +0.0% |
4.1% 0.1% |
3.7% -0.2% |
2.9% +0.0% |
2.9% +0.0% |
2.5% 0.3% |
2.5% +0.0% |
2.5% +0.0% |
2.5% Usa matched betting. +0.0% |
2.0% +0.0% |
1.6% +0.0% |
0.8% +0.0% |
16.0% |
| Books we like: | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 'No, They Can't' By John Stossel | 'Signal and the Noise' By Nate Silver | 'Random Walk' By Burton Malkiel | 'Radical' By Maajid Nawaz | 'In Order To Live' By Yeonmi Park |
Political Odds 2016 Presidential Election
Political Odds Checker
(5% of purchases go to support ElectionBettingOdds.com through Amazon.com's affiliate program. Thank you!)About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute
|
Copyright 2020, FTX.com
Our 2020 forecasts — presidential, Senate, House — are all now officially frozen, meaning we won't be ingesting any new polls or updating the odds in any race. Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time. At the end of a loooooong campaign, here's where we stand: Joe Biden is favored to beat President Trump (though Trump still has a 1-in-10 chance); Democrats have a 3-in-4 shot at taking back the Senate; and the House will most likely remain under Democratic control (Democrats might even expand their majority by a few seats). The big picture is clear: The overall electoral environment favors Democrats, which is one reason they have decent odds of controlling the presidency, Senate and House (a 72 percent chance, according to our forecast). Of course, there's always the chance of a polling error, which tends to be correlated from state to state when it happens. Trump needs a bigger-than-normal error in his favor, but the real possibility that polls are underestimating Trump's support is why he still has a path to win reelection. A 10 percent chance of winning is not a zero percent chance. In fact, that is roughly the same odds that it's raining in downtown Los Angeles. And it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)
Political Odds Futures
Political Odds Paddy Power
- According to our final presidential forecast, Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping-point state, and a lot of Biden's chances in the Electoral College hinge on what happens in the Keystone State. He leads Trump there by about 5 points in our polling average, but it's not as large a margin as Biden might like. Last week, we gamed out what would happen if Biden lost Pennsylvania but won other Midwestern states like Wisconsin. (TL;DR there's no clear Plan B for Biden.) Want to run through your own hypothetical scenarios? You now can with our interactive forecast that lets you explore the ways each candidate could win. We're hoping to use this tool ourselves on election night to better understand Biden and Trump's paths to victory, especially if the outstanding vote takes a while to be counted.
- Unless Trump or Biden has a really good night on Nov. 3, it's pretty unlikely, though, that either of them will hit the 270 electoral votes needed to win by the end of the night. That doesn't necessarily mean, though, that we won't have a pretty good idea of who won. It's all going to come down to how close some of the key battleground races are and whether a representative share of the vote can be reported, which won't always be possible given the challenges of the pandemic. We're tracking when we expect results in every state.
